Could the Lib Dems and the Tories overtake Labour in Scotland?
Apart from the much more positive opinion polls (from an SNP point of view), the past months have also seen the publication of Lord Ashcroft’s constituency polls (which found a greater-than-average swing towards the SNP in Labour-held constituencies) and more recently by tactical voting polls.
I’ve put the detailed analysis in separate pages (please click on the constituency names below), but in summary format my findings are as follows:
| Constituency | 2010 MP | 2010 | 2015 pred. | Pred. maj. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orkney and Shetland | Alistair Carmichael | LIB | LIB | 3349 |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | David Mundell | CON | CON | 2066 |
| Ross, Skye and Lochaber | Charles Kennedy | LIB | LIB | 1575 |
| North East Fife | Sir Menzies Campbell | LIB | LIB | 853 |
| Glasgow North East | Willie Bain | LAB | LAB | 695 |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | Michael Moore | LIB | CON | 392 |
| Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath | Gordon Brown | LAB | SNP | 119 |
| Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill | Tom Clarke | LAB | SNP | 479 |
| East Dunbartonshire | Jo Swinson | LIB | SNP | 540 |
| East Renfrewshire | Jim Murphy | LAB | SNP | 718 |
| Glasgow South West | Ian Davidson | LAB | SNP | 1674 |
| Rutherglen and Hamilton West | Tom Greatrex | LAB | SNP | 2664 |
| Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | John Thurso | LIB | SNP | 2689 |
| Motherwell and Wishaw | Frank Roy | LAB | SNP | 2943 |
| Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Douglas Alexander | LAB | SNP | 3495 |
| Glasgow North | Ann McKechin | LAB | SNP | 3628 |
| Dunfermline and West Fife | Thomas Docherty | LAB | SNP | 3850 |
| Glasgow North West | John Robertson | LAB | SNP | 3962 |
| West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | Sir Robert Smith | LIB | SNP | 4164 |
| West Dunbartonshire | Gemma Doyle | LAB | SNP | 4169 |
| Inverclyde | David Cairns | LAB | SNP | 4181 |
| Glenrothes | Lindsay Roy | LAB | SNP | 4290 |
| Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey | Danny Alexander | LIB | SNP | 4549 |
| Glasgow East | Margaret Curran | LAB | SNP | 4924 |
| Glasgow Central | Anas Sarwar | LAB | SNP | 4947 |
| Airdrie and Shotts | Pamela Nash | LAB | SNP | 5762 |
| Paisley and Renfrewshire North | James Sheridan | LAB | SNP | 6002 |
| Edinburgh South West | Alistair Darling | LAB | SNP | 6149 |
| Edinburgh North and Leith | Mark Lazarowicz | LAB | SNP | 6338 |
| Edinburgh West | Michael Crockart | LIB | SNP | 6402 |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Russell Brown | LAB | SNP | 6509 |
| Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East | Gregg McClymont | LAB | SNP | 7167 |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar | Angus MacNeil | SNP | SNP | 7207 |
| Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Sandra Osborne | LAB | SNP | 7285 |
| Glasgow South | Tom Harris | LAB | SNP | 7294 |
| Gordon | Malcolm Bruce | LIB | SNP | 7508 |
| Edinburgh South | Ian Murray | LAB | SNP | 7831 |
| Central Ayrshire | Brian Donohoe | LAB | SNP | 7937 |
| Argyll and Bute | Alan Reid | LIB | SNP | 8461 |
| East Lothian | Fiona O’Donnell | LAB | SNP | 8682 |
| Midlothian | David Hamilton | LAB | SNP | 8786 |
| Lanark and Hamilton East | Jimmy Hood | LAB | SNP | 9128 |
| Aberdeen North | Frank Doran | LAB | SNP | 9742 |
| Aberdeen South | Anne Begg | LAB | SNP | 9873 |
| Edinburgh East | Sheila Gilmore | LAB | SNP | 10022 |
| Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Cathy Jamieson | LAB | SNP | 10360 |
| East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow | Michael McCann | LAB | SNP | 10586 |
| Dundee West | James McGovern | LAB | SNP | 11466 |
| Stirling | Anne McGuire | LAB | SNP | 11732 |
| Angus | Michael Weir | SNP | SNP | 12301 |
| North Ayrshire and Arran | Katy Clark | LAB | SNP | 12397 |
| Linlithgow and East Falkirk | Michael Connarty | LAB | SNP | 12964 |
| Livingston | Graeme Morrice | LAB | SNP | 13160 |
| Banff and Buchan | Eilidh Whiteford | SNP | SNP | 13178 |
| Moray | Angus Robertson | SNP | SNP | 15332 |
| Perth and North Perthshire | Peter Wishart | SNP | SNP | 15850 |
| Dundee East | Stewart Hosie | SNP | SNP | 17278 |
| Falkirk | Eric Joyce | LAB | SNP | 17465 |
| Ochil and South Perthshire | Gordon Banks | LAB | SNP | 19651 |
Shockingly, it looks like the LibDems and the Tories might fare slightly better than expected due to the inverse Ashcroft effect (if the swing towards the SNP is greater in Labour-held seats, it must be smaller in other seats) and tactical voting.
If this prediction is correct, the Lib Dems will hold onto three of their seats, the Tories will go from one to two (by winning a Lib Dem seat), Labour will be reduced to one, and the SNP will win the remaining 53 Westminster seats.
If you’re predictions are right, we’re going to have to fork out a fortune on an extra panda for Edinburgh zoo 😉
🙂
Could the Lib Dems and the Tories overtake Labour in Scotland? http://t.co/608ZLH1bOz
Your links appear to be broken. Any I have clicked tell me the page can’t be found and offer me a search box – would you care to check this out?
I’ve now made the links absolute — could you please try again?
RT @Lesserpawn: Could the Lib Dems and the Tories overtake Labour in Scotland? http://t.co/608ZLH1bOz
@Lesserpawn @arcofprosperity
No
No
But rather than Tories overtaking, Lab could fall behind a static Tory support
🙂
Could the Lib Dems and the Tories overtake Labour in Scotland? http://t.co/2YwMoAFSZn
Could the Lib Dems and the Tories overtake Labour in Scotland? http://t.co/TWVSBqMr9l
What Scotland wants is very clear. It’s English politics that are a mess.
Tried again as asked – links fine now. Enjoyed your analysis, glad you think it is only through tactictal voting that Charles Kennedy may retain his seat – I promise we’re trying.
That’s good to hear! 🙂
http://t.co/L7Rz7euO0a I’m going to bookmark this one. It’s an exercise in educated guessing, with good SNP news, so let’s see on May 7th.
Detailed predictions for all Scottish constituencies, taking into account the Ashcroft effect & tactical voting: http://t.co/o3bDhu0gbM
RT @arcofprosperity: Detailed predictions for all Scottish constituencies, taking into account the Ashcroft effect & tactical voting: http:…
RT @arcofprosperity: Detailed predictions for all Scottish constituencies, taking into account the Ashcroft effect & tactical voting: http:…
Could the Lib Dems and the Tories overtake Labour in Scotland? http://t.co/GU8nKOoXiG
RT @rattlecans: Could the Lib Dems and the Tories overtake Labour in Scotland? http://t.co/GU8nKOoXiG