Predicting the wardwise distribution of Yes and No votes

The prediction I made recently of the geographical distribution of Yes and No votes was very coarse — I only looked at the regions.

However, Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus was so kind as to point me towards some ward data (CSV format).

I applied the same percentages as last time for mapping political parties to Yes/No:

SNP Labour Cons LibDems
Yes 81.7% 25.8% 5.9% 26.2%
No 18.3% 74.2% 94.1% 73.8%

Furthermore, I split the “other” parties (and independents) 50/50, and I allocated an extra 10% of the electorate to the Yes side, simply because I think there’ll be more interest in the independence referendum than in a council election, and I reckon this interest will benefit the Yes side.

In this way, the result for Scotland as a whole would be 51% Yes and 49% No.

Now we get to the interesting bit. Here are the results for all of Scotland’s electoral wards, sorted by ascending Yes vote (i.e., starting with the most unionist ward and ending with most nationalistic one):

Council Ward Yes No
East Renfrewshire Newton Mearns South 30% 70%
Edinburgh Colinton / Fairmilehead 32% 68%
Dumfries and Galloway Annandale East and Eskdale 36% 64%
Aberdeen Hazlehead / Ashley / Queens Cross 37% 63%
Edinburgh Pentland Hills 37% 63%
Edinburgh Corstorphine / Murrayfield 37% 63%
East Renfrewshire Busby, Clarkston and Eaglesham 37% 63%
Aberdeenshire Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside 38% 62%
South Ayrshire Ayr West 38% 62%
Edinburgh Meadows / Morningside 38% 62%
Argyll and Bute South Kintyre 39% 61%
South Ayrshire Ayr East 39% 61%
Dumfries and Galloway Abbey 39% 61%
East Dunbartonshire Lenzie and Kirkintilloch South 39% 61%
Edinburgh Southside / Newington 39% 61%
East Dunbartonshire Bishopbriggs North and Torrance 40% 60%
Edinburgh Inverleith 40% 60%
East Renfrewshire Giffnock and Thornliebank 40% 60%
Stirling Forth and Endrick 40% 60%
Aberdeen Airyhall / Broomhill / Garthdee 41% 59%
Dumfries and Galloway Lochar 41% 59%
Dumfries and Galloway Annandale South 41% 59%
Dumfries and Galloway Mid and Upper Nithsdale 41% 59%
East Dunbartonshire Bearsden North 41% 59%
Edinburgh Almond 41% 59%
East Renfrewshire Netherlee, Stamperland and Williamwood 41% 59%
Aberdeenshire Stonehaven and Lower Deeside 42% 58%
Scottish Borders Jedburgh and District 42% 58%
Dumfries and Galloway Nith 42% 58%
Dumfries and Galloway North West Dumfries 42% 58%
Dumfries and Galloway Annandale North 42% 58%
Fife Dunfermline Central 42% 58%
Fife East Neuk and Landward 42% 58%
South Lanarkshire Bothwell and Uddingston 42% 58%
East Renfrewshire Neilston, Uplawmoor and Newton Mearns North 42% 58%
Aberdeen Midstocket / Rosemount 43% 57%
South Ayrshire Prestwick 43% 57%
Scottish Borders Kelso and District 43% 57%
East Dunbartonshire Bearsden South 43% 57%
Edinburgh Fountainbridge / Craiglockhart 43% 57%
Fife St Andrews 43% 57%
Perth and Kinross Perth City South 43% 57%
Aberdeen Lower Deeside 44% 56%
Aberdeenshire Banchory and Mid Deeside 44% 56%
South Ayrshire Troon 44% 56%
South Ayrshire Kyle 44% 56%
South Lanarkshire Clydesdale East 44% 56%
East Dunbartonshire Bishopbriggs South 44% 56%
East Lothian North Berwick Coastal 44% 56%
Edinburgh Forth 44% 56%
Edinburgh Drum Brae / Gyle 44% 56%
Perth and Kinross Strathallan 44% 56%
Argyll and Bute Helensburgh Central 45% 55%
Scottish Borders Mid Berwickshire 45% 55%
Dumfries and Galloway Stranraer and North Rhins 45% 55%
Dumfries and Galloway Castle Douglas and Glenkens 45% 55%
Scottish Borders Tweeddale East 45% 55%
East Dunbartonshire Milngavie 45% 55%
Dundee The Ferry 45% 55%
Fife Tay Bridgehead 45% 55%
Inverclyde Inverclyde East 45% 55%
South Lanarkshire Clydesdale North 45% 55%
Renfrewshire Bishopton, Bridge of Weir and Langbank 45% 55%
Stirling Stirling West 45% 55%
North Lanarkshire Murdostoun 46% 54%
Angus Kirriemuir and Dean 46% 54%
Argyll and Bute Helensburgh and Lomond South 46% 54%
Dumfries and Galloway Dee 46% 54%
Scottish Borders Tweeddale West 46% 54%
Edinburgh City Centre 46% 54%
Falkirk Lower Braes 46% 54%
Fife Howe of Fife and Tay Coast 46% 54%
Fife Cupar 46% 54%
Glasgow Calton 46% 54%
Glasgow Partick West 46% 54%
Aberdeenshire Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford 46% 54%
Clackmannanshire Clackmannanshire East 46% 54%
Perth and Kinross Kinross-shire 46% 54%
Perth and Kinross Almond and Earn 46% 54%
Perth and Kinross Strathearn 46% 54%
South Lanarkshire Rutherglen South 46% 54%
South Lanarkshire Cambuslang West 46% 54%
Stirling Dunblane and Bridge of Allan 46% 54%
Aberdeenshire Westhill and District 47% 53%
South Ayrshire Maybole, North Carrick and Coylton 47% 53%
South Ayrshire Girvan and South Carrick 47% 53%
Scottish Borders Hawick and Denholm 47% 53%
Scottish Borders Selkirkshire 47% 53%
Scottish Borders East Berwickshire 47% 53%
East Lothian Haddington and Lammermuir 47% 53%
Edinburgh Liberton / Gilmerton 47% 53%
Glasgow East Centre 47% 53%
South Lanarkshire Hamilton South 47% 53%
North Lanarkshire Motherwell North 47% 53%
Aberdeenshire North Kincardine 48% 52%
North Ayrshire Kilwinning 48% 52%
Highland East Sutherland and Edderton 48% 52%
North Lanarkshire Strathkelvin 48% 52%
North Lanarkshire Thorniewood 48% 52%
East Lothian Preston / Seton / Gosford 48% 52%
East Lothian Dunbar and East Linton 48% 52%
Edinburgh Craigentinny / Duddingston 48% 52%
Glasgow Govan 48% 52%
Glasgow Pollokshields 48% 52%
Aberdeenshire East Garioch 48% 52%
Aberdeenshire Mid Formartine 48% 52%
Inverclyde Inverclyde North 48% 52%
Fife Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay 48% 52%
Stirling Trossachs and Teith 48% 52%
Aberdeenshire Mearns 49% 51%
Argyll and Bute Kintyre and the Islands 49% 51%
South Ayrshire Ayr North 49% 51%
Scottish Borders Hawick and Hermitage 49% 51%
Fife West Fife and Coastal Villages 49% 51%
Fife Dunfermline South 49% 51%
South Lanarkshire Avondale and Stonehouse 49% 51%
Edinburgh Leith Walk 49% 51%
Falkirk Falkirk South 49% 51%
Glasgow Drumchapel / Anniesland 49% 51%
Inverclyde Inverclyde West 49% 51%
South Lanarkshire Hamilton North and East 49% 51%
Renfrewshire Paisley East and Ralston 49% 51%
Renfrewshire Paisley North West 49% 51%
Perth and Kinross Strathmore 49% 51%
South Lanarkshire Cambuslang East 49% 51%
East Ayrshire Cumnock and New Cumnock 50% 50%
North Ayrshire Dalry and West Kilbride 50% 50%
North Lanarkshire Coatbridge West 50% 50%
East Dunbartonshire Campsie and Kirkintilloch North 50% 50%
East Dunbartonshire Kirkintilloch East and Twechar 50% 50%
North Lanarkshire Kilsyth 50% 50%
Dumfries and Galloway Mid Galloway 50% 50%
South Lanarkshire Clydesdale South 50% 50%
Edinburgh Leith 50% 50%
Glasgow North East 50% 50%
Glasgow Newlands / Auldburn 50% 50%
Glasgow Langside 50% 50%
Aberdeenshire West Garioch 50% 50%
Aberdeenshire Inverurie and District 50% 50%
Inverclyde Inverclyde East Central 50% 50%
Inverclyde Inverclyde South 50% 50%
West Lothian Linlithgow 50% 50%
North Lanarkshire Mossend and Holytown 50% 50%
North Lanarkshire Wishaw 50% 50%
Na h-Eileanan an lar Beinn na Foghla agus Uibhist a Tuath 50% 50%
Renfrewshire Houston, Crosslee and Linwood 50% 50%
South Lanarkshire Rutherglen Central and North 50% 50%
Stirling Stirling East 50% 50%
Aberdeen Kingswells / Sheddocksley 51% 49%
Aberdeen Torry / Ferryhill 51% 49%
Highland Landward Caithness 51% 49%
Fife Dunfermline North 51% 49%
South Lanarkshire East Kilbride West 51% 49%
East Lothian Musselburgh West 51% 49%
East Lothian Fa’side 51% 49%
Edinburgh Sighthill / Gorgie 51% 49%
Fife Leven, Kennoway and Largo 51% 49%
Glasgow Anderston / City 51% 49%
Glasgow Garscadden / Scotstounhill 51% 49%
Glasgow Linn 51% 49%
Highland Inverness Ness-Side 51% 49%
East Ayrshire Annick 51% 49%
Fife Cowdenbeath 51% 49%
Fife Lochgelly and Cardenden 51% 49%
Fife Kirkcaldy North 51% 49%
Falkirk Upper Braes 51% 49%
West Lothian Fauldhouse and the Breich Valley 51% 49%
North Lanarkshire Motherwell West 51% 49%
Renfrewshire Erskine and Inchinnan 51% 49%
East Renfrewshire Barrhead 51% 49%
East Ayrshire Doon Valley 52% 48%
North Ayrshire Irvine West 52% 48%
North Ayrshire Kilbirnie and Beith 52% 48%
North Lanarkshire Coatbridge North and Glenboig 52% 48%
Dundee West End 52% 48%
Fife Rosyth 52% 48%
Glasgow Shettleston 52% 48%
Glasgow Hillhead 52% 48%
Aberdeen Bridge of Don 52% 48%
Inverclyde Inverclyde South West 52% 48%
Highland Inverness Millburn 52% 48%
East Ayrshire Ballochmyle 52% 48%
Fife The Lochs 52% 48%
Fife Kirkcaldy Central 52% 48%
Midlothian Penicuik 52% 48%
Midlothian Dalkeith 52% 48%
Midlothian Midlothian East 52% 48%
Renfrewshire Johnstone South, Elderslie and Howwood 52% 48%
Perth and Kinross Perth City Centre 52% 48%
Perth and Kinross Strathtay 52% 48%
Highland Fort William and Ardnamurchan 52% 48%
Highland Black Isle 52% 48%
Aberdeen Hilton / Stockethill 53% 47%
Aberdeen Kincorth / Loirston 53% 47%
Angus Arbroath West and Letham 53% 47%
Argyll and Bute Mid Argyll 53% 47%
Scottish Borders Leaderdale and Melrose 53% 47%
North Lanarkshire Coatbridge South 53% 47%
North Lanarkshire Cumbernauld North 53% 47%
West Dunbartonshire Kilpatrick 53% 47%
East Lothian Musselburgh East and Carberry 53% 47%
Glasgow Craigton 53% 47%
Aberdeen Dyce / Bucksburn / Danestone 53% 47%
Highland Aird and Loch Ness 53% 47%
South Lanarkshire Larkhall 53% 47%
West Lothian Whitburn and Blackburn 53% 47%
Midlothian Bonnyrigg 53% 47%
Shetland Islands Shetland South 53% 47%
Renfrewshire Paisley South West 53% 47%
Highland Caol and Mallaig 53% 47%
South Lanarkshire Blantyre 53% 47%
South Lanarkshire Hamilton West and Earnock 53% 47%
Stirling Castle 53% 47%
Stirling Bannockburn 53% 47%
Aberdeen George St / Harbour 54% 46%
Argyll and Bute Lomond North 54% 46%
North Ayrshire Irvine East 54% 46%
North Ayrshire North Coast and Cumbraes 54% 46%
Highland Thurso 54% 46%
North Lanarkshire Bellshill 54% 46%
South Lanarkshire East Kilbride Central South 54% 46%
Glasgow Southside Central 54% 46%
Glasgow Baillieston 54% 46%
Glasgow Canal 54% 46%
Fife Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages 54% 46%
Aberdeenshire Ellon and District 54% 46%
Highland Inverness Central 54% 46%
Highland Badenoch and Strathspey 54% 46%
Fife Burntisland, Kinghorn and Western Kirkcaldy 54% 46%
Fife Kirkcaldy East 54% 46%
Falkirk Grangemouth 54% 46%
West Lothian Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh 54% 46%
Midlothian Midlothian South 54% 46%
North Lanarkshire Motherwell South East and Ravenscraig 54% 46%
Clackmannanshire Clackmannanshire Central 54% 46%
Shetland Islands Lerwick South 54% 46%
Renfrewshire Paisley South 54% 46%
Highland Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh 54% 46%
Highland Eilean a’ Cheo 54% 46%
Aberdeen Tillydrone / Seaton / Old Aberdeen 55% 45%
North Lanarkshire Fortissat 55% 45%
Aberdeenshire Turriff and District 55% 45%
West Dunbartonshire Dumbarton 55% 45%
South Lanarkshire East Kilbride East 55% 45%
South Lanarkshire East Kilbride Central North 55% 45%
Falkirk Carse, Kinnaird and Tryst 55% 45%
Glasgow Maryhill / Kelvin 55% 45%
Glasgow Springburn 55% 45%
Glasgow Greater Pollok 55% 45%
Highland Inverness West 55% 45%
Highland Inverness South 55% 45%
East Ayrshire Irvine Valley 55% 45%
South Lanarkshire Clydesdale West 55% 45%
West Lothian East Livingston and East Calder 55% 45%
Midlothian Midlothian West 55% 45%
Moray Fochabers Lhanbryde 55% 45%
Na h-Eileanan an lar Sgire an Rubha 55% 45%
Clackmannanshire Clackmannanshire West 55% 45%
Orkney Islands Kirkwall East 55% 45%
Highland Dingwall and Seaforth 55% 45%
North Lanarkshire Airdrie South 56% 44%
North Ayrshire Ardrossan and Arran 56% 44%
Scottish Borders Galashiels and District 56% 44%
Highland North, West and Central Sutherland 56% 44%
Highland Tain and Easter Ross 56% 44%
Dundee Maryfield 56% 44%
Dundee Coldside 56% 44%
Falkirk Falkirk North 56% 44%
East Ayrshire Kilmarnock East and Hurlford 56% 44%
West Lothian Bathgate 56% 44%
Moray Elgin City South 56% 44%
Moray Forres 56% 44%
Na h-Eileanan an lar Steornabhagh a Deas 56% 44%
Na h-Eileanan an lar Steornabhagh a Tuath 56% 44%
Na h-Eileanan an lar An Taobh Siar agus Nis 56% 44%
Orkney Islands West Mainland 56% 44%
Argyll and Bute Oban North and Lorn 57% 43%
Argyll and Bute Dunoon 57% 43%
Highland Wick 57% 43%
West Dunbartonshire Clydebank Central 57% 43%
West Dunbartonshire Clydebank Waterfront 57% 43%
Angus Carnoustie and District 57% 43%
Highland Culloden and Ardersier 57% 43%
West Lothian Livingston South 57% 43%
Orkney Islands Stromness and South Isles 57% 43%
Orkney Islands East Mainland, South Ronaldsay and Burray 57% 43%
Orkney Islands North Isles 57% 43%
Shetland Islands North Isles 57% 43%
Shetland Islands Shetland North 57% 43%
Shetland Islands Shetland West 57% 43%
Renfrewshire Renfrew South and Gallowhill 57% 43%
North Lanarkshire Airdrie Central 58% 42%
Angus Montrose and District 58% 42%
Argyll and Bute Cowal 58% 42%
North Ayrshire Saltcoats and Stevenston 58% 42%
Aberdeenshire Central Buchan 58% 42%
West Dunbartonshire Leven 58% 42%
Angus Monifieth and Sidlaw 58% 42%
Dundee Strathmartine 58% 42%
Edinburgh Portobello / Craigmillar 58% 42%
Falkirk Bonnybridge and Larbert 58% 42%
East Ayrshire Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse 58% 42%
East Ayrshire Kilmarnock South 58% 42%
West Lothian Livingston North 58% 42%
Clackmannanshire Clackmannanshire South 58% 42%
Shetland Islands Shetland Central 58% 42%
Shetland Islands Lerwick North 58% 42%
Renfrewshire Johnstone North, Kilbarchan and Lochwinnoch 58% 42%
Perth and Kinross Perth City North 58% 42%
Perth and Kinross Blairgowrie and Glens 58% 42%
North Lanarkshire Airdrie North 59% 41%
Angus Forfar and District 59% 41%
Angus Arbroath East and Lunan 59% 41%
Argyll and Bute Oban South and the Isles 59% 41%
Aberdeenshire Banff and District 59% 41%
Highland Cromarty Firth 59% 41%
North Lanarkshire Cumbernauld South 59% 41%
West Dunbartonshire Lomond 59% 41%
Highland Nairn 59% 41%
Falkirk Bo’ness and Blackness 59% 41%
West Lothian Armadale and Blackridge 59% 41%
Moray Elgin City North 59% 41%
Na h-Eileanan an lar Na Hearadh agus Ceann a Deas nan Loch 59% 41%
Orkney Islands Kirkwall West and Orphir 59% 41%
Dundee Lochee 60% 40%
Falkirk Denny and Banknock 60% 40%
Moray Buckie 60% 40%
Na h-Eileanan an lar Sgire Uige agus Ceann a Tuath nan Loch 60% 40%
Renfrewshire Renfrew North 60% 40%
Perth and Kinross Highland 60% 40%
Dumfries and Galloway Wigtown West 60% 40%
Aberdeenshire Troup 61% 39%
Dundee East End 61% 39%
Fife Glenrothes West and Kinglassie 61% 39%
Fife Glenrothes Central and Thornton 61% 39%
Na h-Eileanan an lar Loch a Tuath 61% 39%
Clackmannanshire Clackmannanshire North 61% 39%
Perth and Kinross Carse of Gowrie 61% 39%
Aberdeen Northfield 62% 38%
Angus Brechin and Edzell 62% 38%
South Lanarkshire East Kilbride South 62% 38%
Fife Glenrothes North, Leslie and Markinch 62% 38%
East Ayrshire Kilmarnock North 62% 38%
Moray Heldon and Laich 62% 38%
North Lanarkshire Abronhill, Kildrum and The Village 63% 37%
Moray Keith and Cullen 64% 36%
Argyll and Bute Isle of Bute 65% 35%
Dundee North East 65% 35%
Moray Speyside Glenlivet 65% 35%
Aberdeenshire Peterhead North and Rattray 68% 32%
Aberdeenshire Peterhead South and Cruden 70% 30%
Na h-Eileanan an lar Barraigh, Bhatarsaigh, Eirisgeigh agus Uibhist a Deas 70% 30%
Aberdeenshire Fraserburgh and District 71% 29%

Because these figures add up to a very narrow Yes victory, they suggest that these figures are the minimum that will lead to a Yes vote. In other words, if the Isle of Bute doesn’t vote 65% Yes things aren’t looking good for the Yes side, and if Newton Mearns South votes 35% Yes, the No side should be very concerned.

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