Taking the long view

How will Scottish independence be seen by future generations?
How will Scottish independence be seen by future generations?
I get really annoyed at the way the No side constantly try to make people think that voting Yes is the equivalent of making Alex Salmond dictator for life. They also moan that it'll cost a lot of money to buy a navy and duplicate certain shared institutions.

I just wish they would take the long view more often. How many people today are able to remember the names of England's and Scotland's leading politicians at the time the Act of Union was signed, more than three hundred years ago? And more to the point, do they actually care? Should people in 1707 have decided on the merits of creating the Union on the basis of whether they liked the political leaders of the day or not?

I'm not saying the Yes side never uses short-term arguments, but I do think the No side are the worst sinners in this regard. Focusing so much on Salmond is ridiculous -- for all we know, he might decide to step down shortly after the independence referendum, and even if he doesn't, it's quite likely a revitalised Scottish Labour will win the 2020 Scottish General Election (or even the one in 2016).

It's also silly to talk so much about the one-off costs associated with setting up an independent country. After a few years nobody will evaluate the decision to become independent based on these transitional costs; instead, they'll look at how Scottish GDP developed over time after the referendum.

Whereas short-termism permeates the No campaign (probably because they know they have a very weak case when it comes to the longer view), it's relatively sporadic on the Yes side. Of course we do get a lot of stories about how an independent Scotland will abolish the Bedroom Tax and such things, but that's because they provide both a tangible benefit of independence and an example of how Scotland will do things differently, not because the short-term case is more compelling.

Next time I'm talking to a youngish undecided voter who says they'll probably vote No because they don't like Alex Salmond, I think I'll ask them what they think their grandchildren will think of that in fifty years' time.

12 thoughts on “Taking the long view”

  1. I think the focus on Alex Salmond and the SNP is because the Britnat Unionists have no coherent arguments to offer. They rely on emotional appeals to a mythical “great” britain and their only real hope is to turn this into a referendum on Alex Salmond and the SNP, and hope enough non SNP voters vote No. Not a very inspiring strategy, but what did we expect?

    1. Alister, you’re right, of course. It’s very hard to see how Better Together could run a positive campaign full of honest arguments and win.

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