Aberdeen South

The winner in 2010 was Anne Begg (Labour). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP5102
Labour15722
Lib Dem12216
Conservative8914

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP1927324213
Labour1248314626
Lib Dem575211365
Conservative56928293

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP17625
Labour8406
Lib Dem5804
Conservative9473

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) This seat was won by Labour in 2010, so we should apply an even greater swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP19346
Labour6685
Lib Dem5804
Conservative9473

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by Labour in 2010, but the main challenger to the SNP is now the Conservatives, so we shouldn't apply tactical voting. The most likely result here therefore remains as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP19346
Labour6685
Lib Dem5804
Conservative9473

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of Aberdeen South will be won by the SNP candidate.

Return to the main article.