Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

The winner in 2010 was John Thurso (Lib Dem). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP5516
Labour7081
Lib Dem11907
Conservative3744

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP1242324840
Labour48808696
Lib Dem573014623
Conservative26334598

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP13887
Labour2190
Lib Dem7621
Conservative4118

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) The 2010 winner in this seat was the Lib Dems, so we should apply a smaller swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP12737
Labour3341
Lib Dem7621
Conservative4118

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by the Lib Dems in 2010, and this party is still the SNP's main opponent if we apply uniform swing. We should therefore expect tactical voting:

PartyVotes
SNP13968
Labour1169
Lib Dem11279
Conservative1401

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross will be won by the SNP candidate.

However, given the predicted majority is only 2689, there should be absolutely no complacency!

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