Dumfries and Galloway

The winner in 2010 was Russell Brown (Labour). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP6419
Labour23950
Lib Dem4608
Conservative16501

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP1440124503
Labour1427324914
Lib Dem14734793
Conservative1580517165

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP21601
Labour15081
Lib Dem0
Conservative17179

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) This seat was won by Labour in 2010, so we should apply an even greater swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP23688
Labour12994
Lib Dem0
Conservative17179

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by Labour in 2010, but the main challenger to the SNP is now the Conservatives, so we shouldn't apply tactical voting. The most likely result here therefore remains as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP23688
Labour12994
Lib Dem0
Conservative17179

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of Dumfries and Galloway will be won by the SNP candidate.

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