Dundee West

The winner in 2010 was James McGovern (Labour). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP10716
Labour17994
Lib Dem4233
Conservative3461

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP2208228124
Labour1000515155
Lib Dem14533565
Conservative34972915

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP21520
Labour11683
Lib Dem0
Conservative3944

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) This seat was won by Labour in 2010, so we should apply an even greater swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP23005
Labour10198
Lib Dem0
Conservative3944

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by Labour in 2010, and this party is still the SNP's main opponent if we apply uniform swing. We should therefore expect tactical voting:

PartyVotes
SNP23399
Labour11933
Lib Dem0
Conservative1815

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of Dundee West will be won by the SNP candidate.

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