East Dunbartonshire

The winner in 2010 was Jo Swinson (Lib Dem). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP5054
Labour16367
Lib Dem18551
Conservative7431

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP2322725751
Labour2200914939
Lib Dem357316933
Conservative60136783

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP19007
Labour8216
Lib Dem11407
Conservative8054

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) The 2010 winner in this seat was the Lib Dems, so we should apply a smaller swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP17089
Labour10134
Lib Dem11407
Conservative8054

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by the Lib Dems in 2010, and this party is still the SNP's main opponent if we apply uniform swing. We should therefore expect tactical voting:

PartyVotes
SNP20469
Labour3547
Lib Dem19929
Conservative2739

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of East Dunbartonshire will be won by the SNP candidate.

However, given the predicted majority is only 540, there should be absolutely no complacency!

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