East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow

The winner in 2010 was Michael McCann (Labour). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP11738
Labour26241
Lib Dem5052
Conservative6613

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP2391033832
Labour1936928246
Lib Dem5215438
Conservative49237118

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP26563
Labour17580
Lib Dem0
Conservative7275

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) This seat was won by Labour in 2010, so we should apply an even greater swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP28601
Labour15542
Lib Dem0
Conservative7275

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by Labour in 2010, and this party is still the SNP's main opponent if we apply uniform swing. We should therefore expect tactical voting:

PartyVotes
SNP29329
Labour18743
Lib Dem0
Conservative3346

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow will be won by the SNP candidate.

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