Edinburgh North and Leith

The winner in 2010 was Mark Lazarowicz (Labour). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP4568
Labour17740
Lib Dem16016
Conservative7079

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP1994728813
Labour1952618790
Lib Dem752616964
Conservative61747498

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP18349
Labour9689
Lib Dem8960
Conservative7695

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) This seat was won by Labour in 2010, so we should apply an even greater swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP20243
Labour7795
Lib Dem8960
Conservative7695

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by Labour in 2010, and this party is still the SNP's main opponent if we apply uniform swing. We should therefore expect tactical voting:

PartyVotes
SNP21999
Labour15661
Lib Dem3494
Conservative3539

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of Edinburgh North and Leith will be won by the SNP candidate.

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