Edinburgh West

The winner in 2010 was Michael Crockart (Lib Dem). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP6115
Labour12881
Lib Dem16684
Conservative10767

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP3098522615
Labour2409613716
Lib Dem1581417765
Conservative1546811465

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP19631
Labour4985
Lib Dem9763
Conservative11371

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) The 2010 winner in this seat was the Lib Dems, so we should apply a smaller swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP17773
Labour6843
Lib Dem9763
Conservative11371

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by the Lib Dems in 2010, but the main challenger to the SNP is now the Conservatives, so we shouldn't apply tactical voting. The most likely result here therefore remains as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP17773
Labour6843
Lib Dem9763
Conservative11371

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of Edinburgh West will be won by the SNP candidate.

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