Glasgow South West

The winner in 2010 was Ian Davidson (Labour). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP5192
Labour19863
Lib Dem2870
Conservative2084

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP1271331076
Labour1246621405
Lib Dem6123093
Conservative16452246

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP14440
Labour14460
Lib Dem0
Conservative2497

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) This seat was won by Labour in 2010, so we should apply an even greater swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP15712
Labour13189
Lib Dem0
Conservative2497

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by Labour in 2010, and this party is still the SNP's main opponent if we apply uniform swing. We should therefore expect tactical voting:

PartyVotes
SNP15962
Labour14288
Lib Dem0
Conservative1148

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of Glasgow South West will be won by the SNP candidate.

However, given the predicted majority is only 1674, there should be absolutely no complacency!

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