Gordon

The winner in 2010 was Malcolm Bruce (Lib Dem). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP10827
Labour9811
Lib Dem17575
Conservative9111

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP2756924418
Labour62739810
Lib Dem772417574
Conservative70269110

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP25021
Labour1519
Lib Dem10308
Conservative9745

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) The 2010 winner in this seat was the Lib Dems, so we should apply a smaller swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP23070
Labour3470
Lib Dem10308
Conservative9745

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by the Lib Dems in 2010, and this party is still the SNP's main opponent if we apply uniform swing. We should therefore expect tactical voting:

PartyVotes
SNP24787
Labour1214
Lib Dem17279
Conservative3313

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of Gordon will be won by the SNP candidate.

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