Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

The winner in 2010 was Danny Alexander (Lib Dem). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP8803
Labour10407
Lib Dem19172
Conservative6278

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP2243731937
Labour867810417
Lib Dem744319191
Conservative48686284

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP22505
Labour2402
Lib Dem12156
Conservative6890

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) The 2010 winner in this seat was the Lib Dems, so we should apply a smaller swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP20622
Labour4286
Lib Dem12156
Conservative6890

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by the Lib Dems in 2010, and this party is still the SNP's main opponent if we apply uniform swing. We should therefore expect tactical voting:

PartyVotes
SNP22330
Labour1500
Lib Dem17781
Conservative2343

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey will be won by the SNP candidate.

However, given the predicted majority is only 4549, there should be absolutely no complacency!

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