Kilmarnock and Loudoun

The winner in 2010 was Cathy Jamieson (Labour). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP12082
Labour24460
Lib Dem3419
Conservative6592

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP2148932251
Labour1461525578
Lib Dem8273575
Conservative47306893

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP25629
Labour16546
Lib Dem0
Conservative7197

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) This seat was won by Labour in 2010, so we should apply an even greater swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP27491
Labour14684
Lib Dem0
Conservative7197

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by Labour in 2010, and this party is still the SNP's main opponent if we apply uniform swing. We should therefore expect tactical voting:

PartyVotes
SNP28211
Labour17851
Lib Dem0
Conservative3310

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of Kilmarnock and Loudoun will be won by the SNP candidate.

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