Moray

The winner in 2010 was Angus Robertson (SNP). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP16273
Labour7007
Lib Dem5956
Conservative10683

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP1846727232
Labour383910945
Lib Dem14219303
Conservative632416687

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP28205
Labour36
Lib Dem0
Conservative11216

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) The 2010 winner in this seat was the SNP, so we should apply a smaller swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP26565
Labour1676
Lib Dem0
Conservative11216

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. In this seat, the SNP won in 2010. The runner-up was the Conservatives, and this party is still the main contender if we apply uniform swing. We should therefore expect tactical voting:

PartyVotes
SNP27068
Labour653
Lib Dem0
Conservative11736

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of Moray will be won by the SNP candidate.

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