North Ayrshire and Arran

The winner in 2010 was Katy Clark (Labour). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP11965
Labour21860
Lib Dem4630
Conservative7212

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP2334635304
Labour1556123845
Lib Dem9315050
Conservative53617867

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP25385
Labour14020
Lib Dem0
Conservative7812

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) This seat was won by Labour in 2010, so we should apply an even greater swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP27229
Labour12176
Lib Dem0
Conservative7812

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by Labour in 2010, and this party is still the SNP's main opponent if we apply uniform swing. We should therefore expect tactical voting:

PartyVotes
SNP28010
Labour15613
Lib Dem0
Conservative3594

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of North Ayrshire and Arran will be won by the SNP candidate.

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