North East Fife

The winner in 2010 was Sir Menzies Campbell (Lib Dem). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP5685
Labour6869
Lib Dem17763
Conservative8715

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP1446928289
Labour60067136
Lib Dem859518453
Conservative60379054

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP17344
Labour58
Lib Dem11793
Conservative9236

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) The 2010 winner in this seat was the Lib Dems, so we should apply a smaller swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP15741
Labour1661
Lib Dem11793
Conservative9236

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by the Lib Dems in 2010, and this party is still the SNP's main opponent if we apply uniform swing. We should therefore expect tactical voting:

PartyVotes
SNP16928
Labour582
Lib Dem17781
Conservative3140

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of North East Fife will be won by the Lib Dem candidate.

The size of the predicted majority is so small, however, that SNP activists should by no means give up – this seat is very much winnable!

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