Ochil and South Perthshire

The winner in 2010 was Gordon Banks (Labour). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP13944
Labour19131
Lib Dem5754
Conservative10342

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP1861231212
Labour663522543
Lib Dem20776780
Conservative853312186

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP28630
Labour10551
Lib Dem0
Conservative10998

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) This seat was won by Labour in 2010, so we should apply an even greater swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP30649
Labour8533
Lib Dem0
Conservative10998

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by Labour in 2010, but the main challenger to the SNP is now the Conservatives, so we shouldn't apply tactical voting. The most likely result here therefore remains as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP30649
Labour8533
Lib Dem0
Conservative10998

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of Ochil and South Perthshire will be won by the SNP candidate.

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