Paisley and Renfrewshire North

The winner in 2010 was James Sheridan (Labour). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP8333
Labour23613
Lib Dem4597
Conservative6381

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP1893125212
Labour1787919258
Lib Dem15813749
Conservative70865204

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP21052
Labour16183
Lib Dem0
Conservative6949

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) This seat was won by Labour in 2010, so we should apply an even greater swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP22800
Labour14435
Lib Dem0
Conservative6949

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by Labour in 2010, and this party is still the SNP's main opponent if we apply uniform swing. We should therefore expect tactical voting:

PartyVotes
SNP23495
Labour17493
Lib Dem0
Conservative3196

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of Paisley and Renfrewshire North will be won by the SNP candidate.

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