Paisley and Renfrewshire South

The winner in 2010 was Douglas Alexander (Labour). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP7228
Labour23842
Lib Dem3812
Conservative3979

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP2232730254
Labour2369525517
Lib Dem24934080
Conservative60694258

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP18867
Labour17042
Lib Dem0
Conservative4499

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) This seat was won by Labour in 2010, so we should apply an even greater swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP20467
Labour15442
Lib Dem0
Conservative4499

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by Labour in 2010, and this party is still the SNP's main opponent if we apply uniform swing. We should therefore expect tactical voting:

PartyVotes
SNP20917
Labour17422
Lib Dem0
Conservative2069

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of Paisley and Renfrewshire South will be won by the SNP candidate.

However, given the predicted majority is only 3495, there should be absolutely no complacency!

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