West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

The winner in 2010 was Sir Robert Smith (Lib Dem). The votes cast for the four main parties were as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP7086
Labour6159
Lib Dem17362
Conservative13678

The 2011 Holyrood election was conducted using different constituencies, but we can calculate the equivalent Westminster result. We can do something similar for the independence referendum result, mapping the Yes votes to SNP votes and the No votes to Labour, LD and Conservative votes according to their distribution at the last UK election. If we do this, the results were as follows:

Party20112014
SNP2440425907
Labour57206530
Lib Dem1060318408
Conservative1100214502

The latest opinion poll by YouGov (8th-9th April) gave Labour 25%, the SNP 49%, the Tories 18% and the Lib Dems 4%. If we apply the swing implied by these figures to the 2010 results for this constituency, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP20238
Labour0
Lib Dem10628
Conservative14266

Lord Ashcroft conducted some constituency polls earlier this year which seemed to show that the swing to the SNP was 4% greater in Labour-held seats (and as a consequence smaller in seats held by the Tories and the Lib Dems.) The 2010 winner in this seat was the Lib Dems, so we should apply a smaller swing. If we do this, we get:

PartyVotes
SNP18430
Labour284
Lib Dem10628
Conservative14266

Finally, another opinion poll has shown that voters will to some extent vote tactically in seats where there is a clear opponent to the SNP. This seat was won by the Lib Dems in 2010, but the main challenger to the SNP is now the Conservatives, so we shouldn't apply tactical voting. The most likely result here therefore remains as follows:

PartyVotes
SNP18430
Labour284
Lib Dem10628
Conservative14266

This prediction is the best we can do at the moment. This blog therefore predicts the constituency of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine will be won by the SNP candidate.

However, given the predicted majority is only 4164, there should be absolutely no complacency!

Return to the main article.