I haven’t blogged much recently. It just doesn’t seem like there’s any point. The World seems to be sliding towards fascism in more and more places – Brazil most recently – and it seems more and more likely that we’ll end up with a cliff-edge, no-deal Brexit in March. It also doesn’t look like the SNP will do anything to prevent it from happening.
As an EU citizen, that’s a disaster. It’s becoming clear that we might need registration documents to get a job, rent a flat or open a bank account after March, but many of us won’t get those for another two years. It’s a mess, but the Home Office had clearly assumed there would be a transitional period. The Scottish Government has always supported us in words, but there’s nothing they can do to help us if the Home Office starts taking away our rights.
If Nicola Sturgeon hadn’t been so positive and persuasive just after the Brexit referendum, many of us would have left Scotland by now. In retrospect, that would probably have been better. Telling people that they don’t need to get into the lifeboats because you’re going to steer the ship to safety is no good if you then do nothing to save it.
Of course it’s still possible that there’ll be a withdrawal agreement, including a transitional period lasting until December 2020. If so, Scotland just might be able to hold an independence referendum in late 2019 or early 2020. I have my doubts, though. The first bit is not impossible, but the Tories seem to be hellbent on securing a solution that allows them to sell the NHS to American investors and make them filthily rich in the process. The second bit, however, seems very unlikely. Theresa May (or her successor) will keep insisting that “now is not the time”, and Nicola Sturgeon clearly likes to play by the rules. That might normally be a good thing, but at the moment we need somebody who can navigate the chaos and turn the uncertainties into advantages.
Hopefully I’m wrong, but to me it feels like the Titanic is sinking, and there are no lifeboats left.