For a long time now, British politics has been stuck in the mud. There’s no majority in favour of anything related to Brexit, but lots of majorities against everything. So there’s no Brexit deal, no People’s Vote, no general election, nothing. And because the SNP won’t do anything about independence till it’s clear where Brexit is going, they are also caught up in the quagmire. It’s dispiriting and demoralising.
Perhaps there’ll be a Hallowe’en No-Deal Brexit. Or perhaps there’ll be another extension (at the end of which the No-Deal scenario will raise its ugly head again). The only thing that might change things is a general election, but only if it actually produces a majority in favour of something.
You cannot put a whole country on hold for several years without seriously undermining business confidence. There are signs a recession has already started, and I cannot see what will end it until the direction of travel becomes clear.
I must admit I cannot see how the SNP will get an independence referendum out of this mess. If the Tories are in charge, they won’t give consent to a new independence referendum (and of course it’s clear Nicola Sturgeon won’t proceed if Westminster are against it), but if Labour and/or the Lib Dems win power, Brexit is likely to get cancelled (or at least turned into a manageable Norwegian solution), and then there’s no urgent need for Scottish independence to escape Brexit, and what happens then?
Perhaps a No-Deal Brexit will crystallise minds in the independence movement, but it’s unlikely English Remainers will just give up at that point, so there’s likely to be a huge movement for the UK to rejoin the EU as soon as possible – and will Scotland act without knowing whether that’ll succeed?
I haven’t blogged much recently, but that’s because you can only write so much about being stuck in the mud. Unless somebody finds a way to get out of it, any kind of advice easily turns into mud wrestling.